BN · rank #10 · 2026-10-26
ONTO
NYSE · $9.75B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.41 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +30.8% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +13.1% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +11.8% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.2% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 0.76 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 5.83× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +92.9% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +15% |
| Market cap (USD) | $9.75B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Onto Innovation supplies semiconductor metrology, inspection, and process-control systems critical to advanced-node, HBM, and AI-chip manufacturing, with a $1B+ backlog and record revenue trajectory.
Rationale
ONTO directly embodies the bottleneck-solver thesis — its tools are qualified into HBM and advanced-node fabs where process-control is a gating constraint, evidenced by the SK hynix Best Partner Award, 50% sequential advanced-node revenue growth, and a first-ever $1B backlog providing real revenue visibility.
Material risks
- 1Onto holds a differentiated but contested position against KLA, Nova, and Camtek — customer re-qualification of competing tools or KLA leveraging its dominant installed base could erode Onto's process-control wins before backlog fully converts.
- 2The $1.5B zero-coupon convertible issuance against only $62M Q2 operating cash flow creates meaningful future dilution or repayment pressure if AI/HBM capex cycles soften and backlog conversion slows.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.