BN · rank #8 · 2026-10-26
TSM
NYSE · $2.17T (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.44 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +37.5% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +49.7% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +51.1% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | -1.5% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 0.86 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.64× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +39.6% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +3% |
| Market cap (USD) | $2.17T |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
TSMC is the world's dominant contract semiconductor foundry, manufacturing leading-edge logic chips and advanced AI packaging (CoWoS/SoIC) for virtually every major fabless customer including Nvidia, Apple, AMD, and Broadcom.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver thesis is directly reinforced — AI-chip demand explicitly exceeds available supply at N2/N3 and CoWoS, TSMC holds ~72.5% global foundry share with no near-term capacity substitute, and 37.5% forward revenue growth at a 0.86 PEG implies the market is underpricing a durable, supply-constrained earnings ramp.
Material risks
- 1Major hyperscaler and fabless customers (Nvidia, Google, Amazon, Apple) are actively investing in second-source manufacturing and in-house packaging alternatives, which is the precise disqualifier for a sole-source bottleneck thesis — if CoWoS demand migrates to Intel EMIB or Samsung at scale, the pricing power and margin floor erode simultaneously.
- 2The $60–64B capex cycle and overseas fab build-out (Arizona, potential Texas) compress near-term free cash flow and gross margins (already down 130bps on 2nm ramp), creating execution risk precisely when Taiwan-China tensions and Chinese rare-earth restrictions could raise costs or delay equipment access.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.