QM · rank #9 · 2026-07-20
PKN
GPW · PLN · $44.73B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Momentum 12-1 Return from 12 months ago to 1 month ago. | +64.16% |
|---|---|
| ROE TTM Return on equity, trailing 12 months. | +4.4% |
| Profit margin Net profit margin, trailing 12 months. | +2.4% |
| Market cap (USD) Size filter: > $300M required (USD-equivalent). | $44.73B |
| Anchor (recent) Close on 2026-06-19 | $126.36 |
| Anchor (far) Close on 2025-06-20 | $76.97 |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
PKN ORLEN is Central and Eastern Europe's largest integrated energy group, spanning refining, petrochemicals, upstream E&P, LNG logistics, retail fuels, and a growing renewables portfolio anchored in Poland.
Rationale
The 0.64 12-1 momentum signal is reinforced by a concrete fundamental catalyst — record Q1 2026 earnings beating consensus, a record PLN 8/share dividend approval, and multiple operational milestones across wind, CCGT, and upstream — giving the momentum a quality earnings-surprise backbone rather than pure sentiment rotation.
Material risks
- 1Refining margin normalization is the single most acute thesis-breaker: Q1 2026 outperformance was heavily margin-driven, and any reversal (geopolitical de-escalation, demand softness, or Hormuz stabilization) would rapidly compress EBITDA and stall the momentum signal that drove the screen.
- 2The PLN 35.8bn capex budget raise for a single project, alongside the New Chemicals, Grupa Azoty Polyolefins, and offshore wind pipeline, concentrates execution and cost-overrun risk at a time when ROE (4.4%) and profit margin (2.4%) remain thin relative to the scale of capital being deployed.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.