QM · rank #10 · 2026-07-23
ALR
GPW · PLN · $4.76B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Momentum 12-1 Return from 12 months ago to 1 month ago. | +65.52% |
|---|---|
| ROE TTM Return on equity, trailing 12 months. | +18.9% |
| Profit margin Net profit margin, trailing 12 months. | +40.0% |
| Market cap (USD) Size filter: > $300M required (USD-equivalent). | $4.76B |
| Anchor (recent) Close on 2026-06-23 | $132.75 |
| Anchor (far) Close on 2025-06-23 | $80.20 |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Alior Bank (ALR) is a Polish universal lender with ~PLN 105bn in assets, growing deposits and mortgage volumes, and strong capital ratios operating in a rate-sensitive retail and SME banking market.
Rationale
The quality-momentum signal is reinforced by a 65% trailing price return, an 18.9% ROE, and a 40% profit margin that together confirm the market is rewarding a genuinely profitable franchise rather than a low-quality mean-reversion bounce.
Material risks
- 1Net interest margin compression from 588bp to 519bp in a single quarter is the most direct threat to the earnings quality underpinning the ROE signal — if Polish rate cuts accelerate, the margin that justifies the quality screen erodes faster than loan growth can offset it.
- 2The 15% year-on-year net profit decline driven by higher corporate income tax and Bank Guarantee Fund levies introduces a structural tax drag that can persistently suppress realized returns even when operating performance beats consensus.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.