QM · rank #7 · 2026-09-04
PKN
GPW · PLN · $49.14B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Momentum 12-1 Return from 12 months ago to 1 month ago. | +95.56% |
|---|---|
| ROE TTM Return on equity, trailing 12 months. | +8.7% |
| Profit margin Net profit margin, trailing 12 months. | +4.5% |
| Market cap (USD) Size filter: > $300M required (USD-equivalent). | $49.14B |
| Anchor (recent) Close on 2026-08-05 | $150.20 |
| Anchor (far) Close on 2025-08-05 | $76.81 |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
PKN ORLEN is Poland's dominant state-controlled integrated energy group spanning refining, petrochemicals, power generation, and retail fuel, with H1 2026 revenue of ~PLN 152 billion.
Rationale
The strong 12-1 momentum signal is directly reinforced by concrete fundamental delivery — Q2 2026 EBITDA LIFO up ~54% YoY, near-zero net leverage at 0.1x, and a record PLN 8/share dividend — making the quality-momentum pairing credible rather than sentiment-only.
Material risks
- 1Refining and petrochemical crack spread cyclicality is the primary thesis-breaker — the Q2 EBITDA surge is heavily margin-driven, and a spread compression cycle would rapidly deflate both the quality metrics (ROE, margin) and the momentum signal simultaneously.
- 2State ownership creates asymmetric intervention risk — government can redirect capex, suppress retail fuel prices, or override dividend policy in favor of energy-security mandates, directly undermining the capital-return thesis that underpins the quality screen.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.