QM · rank #7 · 2026-09-07
PKN
GPW · PLN · $48.74B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Momentum 12-1 Return from 12 months ago to 1 month ago. | +91.14% |
|---|---|
| ROE TTM Return on equity, trailing 12 months. | +8.7% |
| Profit margin Net profit margin, trailing 12 months. | +4.5% |
| Market cap (USD) Size filter: > $300M required (USD-equivalent). | $48.74B |
| Anchor (recent) Close on 2026-08-07 | $149.06 |
| Anchor (far) Close on 2025-08-08 | $77.99 |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
PKN ORLEN is Poland's dominant state-controlled integrated energy group spanning refining, petrochemicals, power generation, and retail fuel, with H1 2026 revenue of ~PLN 152 billion.
Rationale
The strong 12-1 momentum signal (0.91) is directly reinforced by a concrete fundamental catalyst — Q2 2026 EBITDA LIFO surging ~54% YoY on widened refining and downstream margins, with near-zero leverage and a record dividend announcement validating the quality screen.
Material risks
- 1Refining and petrochemical crack spreads are the primary earnings driver, and a mean-reversion in margins would rapidly deflate both the quality metrics (ROE 8.7%, margin 4.4% already modest) and the momentum signal simultaneously.
- 2State ownership creates asymmetric intervention risk — government can redirect capital toward national energy-security priorities, suppress retail fuel pricing, or override dividend policy, directly undermining minority shareholder returns that the quality-momentum thesis depends on.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.