QM · rank #16 · 2026-09-08
ZAB
GPW · PLN · $8.49B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Momentum 12-1 Return from 12 months ago to 1 month ago. | +43.66% |
|---|---|
| ROE TTM Return on equity, trailing 12 months. | +66.7% |
| Profit margin Net profit margin, trailing 12 months. | +4.4% |
| Market cap (USD) Size filter: > $300M required (USD-equivalent). | $8.49B |
| Anchor (recent) Close on 2026-08-07 | $31.49 |
| Anchor (far) Close on 2025-08-08 | $21.92 |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Żabka Group is Poland's dominant convenience retailer operating ~12,750 franchise stores with early-stage expansion into Romania and autonomous store formats.
Rationale
Strong 12-month price momentum (+43.7%) is directly corroborated by accelerating fundamentals — Q2 2026 revenue +13.7% YoY, adjusted net profit +66% YoY, and expanding EBITDA margins — while a 66.7% ROE signals the capital-light franchise model is generating exceptional returns on equity.
Material risks
- 1Like-for-like growth remains modest (3.2–4.0%), meaning the momentum thesis depends heavily on continued net store additions; any slowdown in franchisee recruitment or real estate availability in Poland could stall the growth narrative that is driving the re-rating.
- 2At ~$8.5B market cap with a 4.4% net margin, the valuation embeds significant execution on Romania expansion and autonomous formats — both early-stage and unproven at scale — leaving the stock exposed to a de-rating if either initiative disappoints.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.