QM · rank #20 · 2026-09-10
ABN
AMSTERDAM · EUR · $40.85B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Momentum 12-1 Return from 12 months ago to 1 month ago. | +58.97% |
|---|---|
| ROE TTM Return on equity, trailing 12 months. | +9.1% |
| Profit margin Net profit margin, trailing 12 months. | +27.7% |
| Market cap (USD) Size filter: > $300M required (USD-equivalent). | $40.85B |
| Anchor (recent) Close on 2026-08-11 | $39.15 |
| Anchor (far) Close on 2025-08-11 | $24.63 |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
ABN AMRO is a major Dutch diversified bank generating strong net interest and fee income across Benelux retail, commercial, and private banking clients, with NIBC integration adding incremental scale.
Rationale
The ~59% trailing momentum signal is reinforced by concrete fundamental delivery — Q2 2026 ROE of 12.1%, raised NII guidance to €6.8bn, and cost guidance cut to €5.5bn — confirming that price appreciation reflects genuine earnings upgrades rather than pure sentiment rotation.
Material risks
- 1ECB rate sensitivity is the primary thesis-breaker — ABN AMRO's own disclosures acknowledge that commercial NII profitability is directly tied to central bank rates, meaning a faster-than-expected ECB easing cycle could rapidly reverse the upgraded income guidance underpinning both the momentum and quality signals.
- 2Credit quality deterioration, as evidenced by prior quarters where bad loan charges caused net profit to undershoot, could re-emerge given NIBC integration execution risk and any Benelux macro softening, pressuring the CET1 ratio and constraining the buyback/dividend programme that supports the quality score.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.