QM · rank #3 · 2026-10-20
CDNA
NASDAQ · $3.35B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Momentum 12-1 Return from 12 months ago to 1 month ago. | +268.95% |
|---|---|
| ROE TTM Return on equity, trailing 12 months. | +29.5% |
| Profit margin Net profit margin, trailing 12 months. | +24.2% |
| Market cap (USD) Size filter: > $500M required. | $3.35B |
| Anchor (recent) Close on 2026-09-18 | $53.83 |
| Anchor (far) Close on 2025-09-19 | $14.59 |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
CareDx is the dominant U.S. transplant molecular-diagnostics company offering dd-cfDNA and gene-expression tests (AlloSure, AlloMap, NavDx) that detect organ rejection earlier and less invasively than biopsy.
Rationale
The momentum_12_1 of 2.69 is directly supported by fundamental acceleration — 52% YoY revenue growth, 61% Testing Services growth, raised full-year guidance to $490–500M, and a 74% non-GAAP gross margin — making the price signal a reflection of genuine earnings revision momentum rather than pure sentiment.
Material risks
- 1Q2 Testing Services revenue included a $16M prior-period catch-up, meaning the underlying run-rate is overstated relative to the raised guidance, and any Medicare LCD or reimbursement tightening could expose that gap sharply.
- 2Natera's Prospera competes directly on dd-cfDNA without CareDx holding a sole-source or patent-monopoly position, so pricing pressure or payer preference shifts could compress the 74% gross margin that underpins the quality signal.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.