QM · rank #1 · 2026-10-20
KGH
GPW · PLN · $16.85B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Momentum 12-1 Return from 12 months ago to 1 month ago. | +148.65% |
|---|---|
| ROE TTM Return on equity, trailing 12 months. | +24.1% |
| Profit margin Net profit margin, trailing 12 months. | +20.0% |
| Market cap (USD) Size filter: > $300M required (USD-equivalent). | $16.85B |
| Anchor (recent) Close on 2026-09-18 | $337.05 |
| Anchor (far) Close on 2025-09-19 | $135.55 |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
KGHM Polska Miedz is the EU's largest mined-copper producer, operating integrated Polish underground mines and smelters alongside the 55%-owned Sierra Gorda copper-molybdenum mine in Chile, with meaningful silver and molybdenum by-product exposure.
Rationale
The momentum_12_1 signal of 1.49 is reinforced by a near-90% EBITDA surge in H1 2026 and a 24% ROE with ~20% profit margins, confirming that price strength reflects genuine earnings acceleration rather than pure sentiment rotation.
Material risks
- 1Sierra Gorda's US$725 million fourth-grinding-line expansion runs through 2030 with execution, cost-overrun and Chilean permitting risk, while simultaneously KGHM funds PLN 9.5 billion in Polish strategic projects — a capital commitment that could strain cash flow if copper prices or ore grades disappoint.
- 2KGHM INTERNATIONAL already delivered 2%-below-budget production in H1 2026 due to lower-than-expected ore quality, a concrete operational signal that the volume growth underpinning the quality-momentum thesis may be softer than headline numbers suggest.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.