QM · rank #5 · 2026-10-21
PKN
GPW · PLN · $46.02B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Momentum 12-1 Return from 12 months ago to 1 month ago. | +87.05% |
|---|---|
| ROE TTM Return on equity, trailing 12 months. | +8.7% |
| Profit margin Net profit margin, trailing 12 months. | +4.5% |
| Market cap (USD) Size filter: > $300M required (USD-equivalent). | $46.02B |
| Anchor (recent) Close on 2026-09-21 | $152.48 |
| Anchor (far) Close on 2025-09-19 | $81.52 |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
PKN ORLEN is Central and Eastern Europe's largest integrated multi-energy group, operating seven refineries, ~3,500 retail stations, upstream production, and the commissioning Baltic Power offshore wind farm across seven countries.
Rationale
The 87% momentum signal is supported by concrete operational catalysts—record dividend proposal, strong Q2 OCF of PLN 15.2bn, near-zero leverage (net debt/EBITDA ~0.1x), and the Equinor crude deal locking in supply security—giving the momentum a fundamental anchor rather than pure sentiment rotation.
Material risks
- 1The PLN 2 billion windfall-tax liability for March–August 2026 is a material, near-term earnings charge that could compress the profit margin (already thin at 4.45%) and undercut the quality signal if Polish or EU fiscal intervention escalates.
- 2Q3 earnings face a double headwind of planned Płock refinery and upstream maintenance continuing into the quarter, leaving near-term results exposed to refining margin compression precisely when the market will re-rate the momentum thesis.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.