QM · rank #6 · 2026-10-23
PKN
GPW · PLN · $46.43B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Momentum 12-1 Return from 12 months ago to 1 month ago. | +74.41% |
|---|---|
| ROE TTM Return on equity, trailing 12 months. | +8.7% |
| Profit margin Net profit margin, trailing 12 months. | +4.5% |
| Market cap (USD) Size filter: > $300M required (USD-equivalent). | $46.43B |
| Anchor (recent) Close on 2026-09-23 | $148.20 |
| Anchor (far) Close on 2025-09-23 | $84.97 |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
PKN ORLEN is Central and Eastern Europe's largest integrated multi-energy group, operating seven refineries, ~3,500 retail stations, upstream production, and the commissioning Baltic Power offshore wind farm across seven countries.
Rationale
Strong 12-1 momentum (0.74) is reinforced by concrete operational catalysts—record dividend proposal, PLN 15.2B Q2 operating cash flow, near-zero leverage (net debt/EBITDA ~0.1x), and the Equinor crude supply agreement locking in ~25% of group demand—giving the quality-momentum signal fundamental backing rather than pure sentiment.
Material risks
- 1The PLN 2 billion windfall-tax liability covering March–August 2026 is a material, near-term earnings charge that directly compresses the profit margin and ROE metrics underpinning the quality leg of this screen, and further Polish or EU fiscal intervention remains an active policy risk.
- 2Q3 earnings are doubly exposed to planned Płock refinery and upstream maintenance continuing into the quarter, meaning the momentum signal could stall or reverse on a weak November 5 results print before the trade has time to mature.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.