QM · rank #18 · 2026-10-26
ALE
GPW · PLN · $15.01B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Momentum 12-1 Return from 12 months ago to 1 month ago. | +40.46% |
|---|---|
| ROE TTM Return on equity, trailing 12 months. | +17.9% |
| Profit margin Net profit margin, trailing 12 months. | +13.9% |
| Market cap (USD) Size filter: > $300M required (USD-equivalent). | $15.01B |
| Anchor (recent) Close on 2026-09-25 | $49.56 |
| Anchor (far) Close on 2025-09-26 | $35.28 |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Allegro.eu (ALE) is Poland's dominant online marketplace, generating ~PLN70bn rolling-12-month GMV across marketplace, advertising, payments, and logistics, with a rapidly growing but smaller international segment.
Rationale
The quality_momentum signal is reinforced by a concrete fundamental anchor — raised FY2026 guidance (GMV +13–15%, adj. EBITDA +13–17%), 16%+ revenue growth, a 17.9% ROE, and durable Polish market leadership that gives the momentum a structural rather than purely sentiment-driven basis.
Material risks
- 1UOKiK regulatory scrutiny over alleged preferential treatment of Allegro's own retail operations could directly constrain ranking and monetization practices, threatening the take-rate trajectory that underpins the quality screen.
- 2The 40bp year-over-year Q2 take-rate compression — driven by deliberate monetization pauses and merchant discounting — signals management is trading near-term margin for volume, creating downside to EBITDA estimates if discretionary demand or geopolitical disruptions materialize in Q4.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.